Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 09:12 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 05:03 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 15:10 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 10:43 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 08:16 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 03:52 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 21:09 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:00 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 17:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 10:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 06:13 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 22:41 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 22:08 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 09:20 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially suspends commercial aviation across its entire airspace or Tehran FIR before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET, excluding closures caused solely by weather. It resolves to No if the closure is partial, limited to specific regions like the Strait of Hormuz, or driven by restrictions from other countries rather than Iran itself.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
Trade this market on Polymarket →