UCLA Stuns Oregon as Dan Lanning Benches Dylan Raiola for Brock Thomas
Oregon coach Dan Lanning replaces struggling quarterback Dylan Raiola with Brock Thomas in a 17-9 upset loss to UCLA.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 13:08 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Oregon respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 10 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 10 October at 22:47 UTC; www.espn.com followed 3h 56m later. The most recent article, from SI Feed, appeared on 12 October at 17:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: www.espn.com (major outlet), SI Feed.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Oregon — the market puts it at 1%, with $14k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 23 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Oregon wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. It resolves to No if Oregon does not win that specific game. Readers often mistake any regular-season victory, such as the recent rout of Portland State, for a resolution.
- Oregon — the market puts it at 6%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Oregon qualifies for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. It resolves to No if Oregon does not reach that specific game. Readers often mistake reaching the playoff semifinals or winning a regular-season game as sufficient, but only making the final championship game counts.
- Dylan Raiola — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Dylan Raiola wins the College Football Heisman Trophy during the 2026-2027 college football season. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific award within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about his benching as a factor, but only the official Heisman Trophy result matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Oregon at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SI FeedOregon Benches Dylan Raiola For Brock Thomas as Bigger Questions Emerge1%
- SI FeedDan Lanning Drops Honest Response to Benching Dylan Raiola in Oregon's Loss2%▲1 points since the previous source
- SI FeedDylan Raiola’s Answer After Oregon’s UCLA Loss Goes Beyond Football2%
- www.espn.comUCLA overcomes Iamaleava's early injury, stuns Oregon to stay undefeated2%
- SI FeedOregon Quarterback Dylan Raiola's Reaction to UCLA Performance Speaks Volumes1%▼1 points since the previous source
- SI FeedDylan Raiola’s Comments About Nebraska Cornhuskers Set Stage for Complicated Reunion2%
- SI FeedQuarterback Brock Thomas Defends Dylan Raiola After UCLA Upset2%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- UCLA overcomes Iamaleava's early injury, stuns Oregon to stay undefeated www.espn.com ·
- Quarterback Brock Thomas Defends Dylan Raiola After UCLA Upset SI Feed
- Dylan Raiola’s Comments About Nebraska Cornhuskers Set Stage for Complicated Reunion SI Feed
- Oregon Quarterback Dylan Raiola's Reaction to UCLA Performance Speaks Volumes SI Feed
- Dylan Raiola’s Answer After Oregon’s UCLA Loss Goes Beyond Football SI Feed
- Dan Lanning Drops Honest Response to Benching Dylan Raiola in Oregon's Loss SI Feed
- Oregon Benches Dylan Raiola For Brock Thomas as Bigger Questions Emerge SI Feed
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Oregon 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Oregon 6% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Dylan Raiola 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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