Trump Waives New Russia Sanctions Under Graham Act

The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 17 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 17 October at 01:25 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 44 min later. The most recent article, from politico.com, appeared on 17 October at 02:54 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), Times of India, Deutsche Welle, kyivindependent.com, BBC News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Russia — the market puts it at 6%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays inside Russia between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not meet this condition within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news about EU sanctions for the resolution criteria, but only Trump's physical presence in Russia matters.
• Before Trump's term ends — the market puts it at 14%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the President suspends the writ of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029. It resolves to 'No' if this event does not occur by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about media bans for the triggering event, but only a suspension of habeas corpus counts.
• Before Jan 20, 2029 — the market puts it at 35%, with $923 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if martial law is imposed in the United States before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Russia sanctions for the actual trigger, but only a declaration of martial law within the US counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.