Trump to Award National Medal of Science to Elon Musk and Tech Leaders Hot: Odds moved 17 points in 24 hours

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 7 Oct 2026. News - South China Morning Post published first, on 7 October at 22:29 UTC; The Hill followed 2h 19m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 8 October at 00:47 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), News - South China Morning Post.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Elon Musk — the market puts it at 34%, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about the National Medal of Science as the deciding factor, but only a pardon, commutation, or reprieve counts toward resolution.
• Elon Musk — the market puts it at 95%, with $544 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Elon Musk meet or speak by phone in October 2026. It resolves to No if this interaction does not occur during that month. Readers often mistake the linked news story about TSMC for the resolution criteria, but only a direct contact between Trump and Musk counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.