Trump’s Push For Deals And Europe’s Fractures Aid Putin

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 20 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 20 October at 20:29 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Trump and Putin not meet? — the market puts it at 16%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Trump and Putin do not have an in-person meeting with direct interaction before December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if they meet face-to-face within that timeframe. Readers often mistake mere proximity or being in the same room for a qualifying meeting.
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31? — the market puts it at 84%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have any direct personal interaction, such as a handshake or conversation, in person before December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on credible reporting confirming that both men were present and actively engaged with each other.
• Russia — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Russia before January 1, 2029. This meeting must occur after their scheduled August 15, 2025 encounter in Alaska. Readers often mistake the location of the earlier Alaska meeting for the decisive event, but only a subsequent meeting on Russian soil counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.