Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, new Knesset in Jerusalem, COP31 opens in Turkey
Diplomatic efforts advance as trilateral peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi, Israel's new parliament convenes in Jerusalem, and the COP31 climate summit launches in Turkey.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 11:05 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 09:12 UTC | 0% |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 06:37 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 04:35 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 01:00 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 00:53 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 23:59 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 22:58 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 21:28 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 20:25 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 19:36 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 11:14 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 02:06 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Nov, 22:59 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 22:01 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 18:36 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 09:28 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 8 November at 18:15 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027? — resolved “No” on 10 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on where the first official, in-person diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine begins by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. For the "Yes" outcome to occur, no such qualifying talks must start within this deadline. Readers often mistake indirect mediation or humanitarian-only discussions for valid peace talks, but only deliberate negotiations on substantive issues like ceasefires count.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 10 Nov 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if representatives from Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting aimed at discussing peace terms by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Readers often mistake indirect talks through mediators as invalid, but these qualify if authorized by the governments.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027? No 2d ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes 2d ago
The market favoured Yes at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Israel
- Ukraine
- Abu Dhabi
- Jerusalem
- Turkey