Tom Cruise’s Digger Divides Critics at Royal Premiere
Early reactions to Alejandro González Iñárritu's satirical film are sharply divided, with critics calling it both a brave masterpiece and a baffling misfire ahead of its October release.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by IndieWire, 1 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 01:33 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 05:05 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 15:37 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 14:27 UTC | 23% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Digger respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 22 Sept 2026. IndieWire published first, on 22 September at 21:33 UTC; Variety followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from The Hollywood Reporter, appeared on 23 September at 21:43 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), IndieWire, Deadline, NME.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Digger — the market puts it at 23%, with $226 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Digger — the market puts it at 31%, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive that specific nomination. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Digger — the market puts it at 19%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Digger at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- IndieWire‘Digger’ First Reactions Divide Critics: ‘Audacious,’ ‘Hollow Misfire,’ and ‘Massive Swing’ with Tom Cruise’s ‘Best Performance’ in Years23%
- Variety‘Digger’ First Reactions Split Over Tom Cruise’s ‘Baffling,’ ‘Unpleasant’ and ‘Brave’ New Movie: ‘The Divide on This Is Going to Be Wide’23%
- VarietyTom Cruise Welcomes Prince William and Kate Middleton at ‘Digger’ World Premiere in London: ‘We Love Them and Really Appreciate What They Do for the Arts’23%
- DeadlineTom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ World Premiere Was A Royal Affair With Prince William & Kate Middleton23%
- NMETom Cruise’s “baffling” ‘Digger’ performance is dividing critics23%
- The Hollywood Reporter‘Digger’: Tom Cruise’s “Brave Gorgeous Misfire” Gets Very Mixed First Reactions23%
- VarietyTom Cruise Is the Last Great Movie Star Still Chasing His Oscar. Can He Overcome ‘Digger’ Reviews to Get Him There?23%
- The Hollywood ReporterNeil Jordan on Tom Cruise’s ‘Interview with the Vampire’ Casting Controversy: “He Liked the Challenge of Proving Them Wrong”14%▼9 points since the previous source
- Current odds23%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Neil Jordan on Tom Cruise’s ‘Interview with the Vampire’ Casting Controversy: “He Liked the Challenge of Proving Them Wrong” The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Tom Cruise Is the Last Great Movie Star Still Chasing His Oscar. Can He Overcome ‘Digger’ Reviews to Get Him There? Variety ·
- ‘Digger’: Tom Cruise’s “Brave Gorgeous Misfire” Gets Very Mixed First Reactions The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Tom Cruise Welcomes Prince William and Kate Middleton at ‘Digger’ World Premiere in London: ‘We Love Them and Really Appreciate What They Do for the Arts’ Variety ·
- ‘Digger’ First Reactions Split Over Tom Cruise’s ‘Baffling,’ ‘Unpleasant’ and ‘Brave’ New Movie: ‘The Divide on This Is Going to Be Wide’ Variety ·
- Tom Cruise’s “baffling” ‘Digger’ performance is dividing critics NME
- Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ World Premiere Was A Royal Affair With Prince William & Kate Middleton Deadline
- ‘Digger’ First Reactions Divide Critics: ‘Audacious,’ ‘Hollow Misfire,’ and ‘Massive Swing’ with Tom Cruise’s ‘Best Performance’ in Years IndieWire
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Digger 23%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Digger 31% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Digger 19% −9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Tom Cruise
- Alejandro González Iñárritu
- Digger
- Prince William
- Kate Middleton