Reform UK-linked thinktank proposes abolishing state pension and cutting civil service
A thinktank linked to Reform UK has called for the abolition of the state pension and halving the size of the civil service in a report likely to influence the party's platform.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg Markets, 4h 59m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 3 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 6% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 22 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 22 September at 23:01 UTC; The Guardian Business followed 4h 59m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Business, appeared on 25 September at 16:37 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- Restore Britain party — the market puts it at 2%, with $328 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Aug 2029. The outcome is Yes if the Restore Britain party wins the most seats in the next UK general election. The outcome is No if any other party wins the most seats or if no party secures a majority. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about the linked thinktank's proposal rather than the actual election results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Restore Britain party at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg MarketsReform Should Cut Back Britain’s State Pension, Think Tank Says—
- The Guardian BusinessThinktank linked to Reform UK calls for abolition of state pension—
- News FeedReform UK says it would halve size of civil service in radical overhaul—
- The Guardian BusinessHow Labour can reform Britain’s pensions triple lock | Letters6%
- Current odds2%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- How Labour can reform Britain’s pensions triple lock | Letters The Guardian Business ·
- Reform UK says it would halve size of civil service in radical overhaul News Feed ·
- Thinktank linked to Reform UK calls for abolition of state pension The Guardian Business ·
- Reform Should Cut Back Britain’s State Pension, Think Tank Says Bloomberg Markets ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Restore Britain party 2% −3
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In this story
- Reform UK
- Centre for a Better Britain
- Nigel Farage