Texas Gov Greg Abbott to Skip San Antonio Rally With Trump Amid Tight Reelection Race

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Washington Post published first, on 6 October at 15:00 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 4h 01m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 6 October at 19:01 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Gina Hinojosa — the market puts it at 29%, with $42k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if a Democrat wins and takes office as Texas governor after the 2026 election. The outcome is No if that does not happen. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline; the market resolves only when the winner is inaugurated.
• Abbott, 3+ pts — the market puts it at 55%, with $152 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate loses or wins by less than 3 percentage points. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a campaign rally for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.
• Greg Abbott — the market puts it at 14%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott announces a campaign for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about skipping a rally as an announcement, but only a formal declaration of candidacy counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.