Spain lifts arrest warrant for Catalan separatist leader Puigdemont Hot: Odds moved 69 points in 24 hours

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 6 Oct 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 6 October at 13:02 UTC; ABC News followed 21 min later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 6 October at 18:58 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? — the market puts it at 19%, with $30k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2028. For the "Yes" outcome, Pedro Sánchez must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The "No" outcome occurs if another individual assumes the role or if no new Prime Minister is officially confirmed by that deadline.
• Pedro Sánchez — the market puts it at 20%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 22 Aug 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election and satisfies all constitutional requirements before August 22, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff.
• Vox — the market puts it at 69%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if a governing coalition that includes Vox forms the next elected Spanish government before January 1, 2028. The outcome is No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the lifting of an arrest warrant for Puigdemont as sufficient for a Yes resolution, but only the formation of a ruling coalition matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.