SpaceX Sets Timetable for Mission Critical to NASA Lunar Landing

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 21 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 21 October at 14:32 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Oct 30, 2026 — the market puts it at 1%, with $264 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 after this question is posted and before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news about Rocket Lab for the actual trigger event.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 1%, with $81 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if an announcement confirms that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after the question was issued and by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline as January 1, 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 28%, with $644 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if a SpaceX Starship launches from Florida before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the launch location or date for the resolution criteria.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.