Before Oct 30, 2026
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$734
Total volume$33k
Liquidity$33k
Resolves30 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 01:05 UTC | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 after this question is posted and before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news about Rocket Lab for the actual trigger event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%