Serbian Leader Vucic Launches Campaign for Prime Minister Post
Former President Aleksandar Vucic seeks to extend his hold on power through a parliamentary vote.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 17:00 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 14:28 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 17:28 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Sept, 10:36 UTC | 64% |
| 30 Sept, 10:07 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 05:38 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Sept, 13:58 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 12:03 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 67% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 09:26 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Sept, 04:46 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 23:44 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 14:17 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 62% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 4 October at 00:26 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? — the market puts it at 66%, with $9k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Aleksandar Vučić is elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Serbia before June 30, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he does not assume the office through this specific process within that timeframe. Readers often mistake interim or caretaker appointments for a valid resolution, but only an elected and sworn-in Prime Minister counts.
- Aleksandar Vučić — the market puts it at 61%, with $92 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Aleksandar Vučić becomes Prime Minister of Serbia after the next general election and meets all constitutional requirements before December 31, 2028. It resolves to No if he does not assume that specific role within the stated timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the election period rather than the final date for meeting constitutional requirements.
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? — the market puts it at 67%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia wins the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, and to "No" otherwise. The outcome depends on the number of seats won by the electoral list as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of party alliances or post-election organization.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? 66%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Aleksandar Vučić 61% −9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? 67% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Aleksandar Vucic
- Serbia