Rays Take 3-2 ALCS Lead Over Guardians With Win Hot: Odds moved 26 points in 24 hours
Drew Rasmussen pitches seven strong innings as Tampa Bay defeats Cleveland 3-1 to take a 3-2 series lead in the American League Championship Series.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by SI Feed, 19 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 80% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 81% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 80% |
| 18 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 70% |
| 18 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 65% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 62% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 20:06 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 49% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 50% |
| 18 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 37% |
| 16 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 35% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 35% |
| 15 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 38% |
| 15 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 35% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 39% |
| 15 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 60% |
| 15 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 51% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 53% |
| 15 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 55% |
| 15 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 55% |
| 15 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 54% |
| 15 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 55% |
| 15 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 54% |
| 15 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 55% |
| 15 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 55% |
| 15 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 56% |
| 15 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 54% |
| 15 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 57% |
| 14 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 58% |
| 14 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 57% |
| 14 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 72% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 71% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 61% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 60% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Tampa Bay respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 18 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 18 October at 23:59 UTC; feeds.bleacherreport.com followed 19 min later. The most recent article, from SI Feed, appeared on 19 October at 01:48 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), www.espn.com (major outlet), SI Feed, feeds.bleacherreport.com.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Tampa Bay — the market puts it at 80%, with $14k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 10 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Tampa Bay wins the championship series against Cleveland in the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoffs. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific series. Readers often mistake a single game victory for winning the entire series.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians — resolved “Yes” on 19 Oct 2026.
- Drew Rasmussen — the market puts it at 2%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Drew Rasmussen wins the 2026 World Series MVP award; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake his team's advancement to the World Series for a win of the individual MVP award.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Tampa Bay at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SI FeedRays One Win Away From World Series Following Great Performance by Drew Rasmussen79%
- feeds.bleacherreport.comRasmussen, Rays Win ALCS G5 vs. Guardians, Box Score Stats, Highlights, Updated MLB Playoff Bracket80%▲1 points since the previous source
- The Guardian USRays on verge of World Series return after Rasmussen dazzles in win over Guardians80%
- www.espn.comRasmussen's gem puts Rays on cusp of World Series80%
- SI FeedRays Take Control of ALCS After Pivotal Game 5 Win80%
- SI FeedDrew Rasmussen Is Challenging Everything We Know About the Rays81%▲1 points since the previous source
- Current odds80%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Rasmussen's gem puts Rays on cusp of World Series www.espn.com ·
- Rays on verge of World Series return after Rasmussen dazzles in win over Guardians The Guardian US ·
- Drew Rasmussen Is Challenging Everything We Know About the Rays SI Feed
- Rays Take Control of ALCS After Pivotal Game 5 Win SI Feed
- Rasmussen, Rays Win ALCS G5 vs. Guardians, Box Score Stats, Highlights, Updated MLB Playoff Bracket feeds.bleacherreport.com
- Rays One Win Away From World Series Following Great Performance by Drew Rasmussen SI Feed
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Tampa Bay 80% +26
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Yes 1h ago
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Drew Rasmussen 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Drew Rasmussen
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Guardians