Quebec votes as separatist surge poses test for Canada PM Hot: Odds moved 14 points in 24 hours

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 5 Oct 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 5 October at 18:22 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 3h 15m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 5 October at 21:36 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? — the market puts it at 32%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Parti Québécois wins at least 64 of the 127 National Assembly seats in the October 5, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if the party wins fewer than 64 seats or if definitive results are not known by March 31, 2027.
• Will the PCQ win 17 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — the market puts it at 36%, with $265 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 6 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Parti conservateur du Québec wins 17 or more seats in the October 5, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if they win fewer than 17 seats. Readers often mistake post-election changes like resignations or by-elections as counting toward the total, but only the initial results from Élections Québec matter.
• Parti Québécois — the market puts it at 5%, with $533 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Parti Québécois ranks second in the 2026 Quebec general election based on certified results. The outcome is No if the party does not finish in that position. Readers often mistake the date of the vote for the resolution deadline, but the market waits for the official certification of the final results.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.