Quad Leaders to Meet in Manila for First Summit Since 2023
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirms the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue will hold its first leaders' summit in Manila next month.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 18% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 11:44 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 29% |
| 16 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 28% |
| 14 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 28% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 20 Oct 2026. News - South China Morning Post published first, on 20 October at 17:13 UTC; Latest articles followed 12h 26m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 21 October at 05:40 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News - South China Morning Post, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? — the market puts it at 14%, with $10k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Jan 2027. For the Yes outcome, Kim Jong Un must meet Donald Trump in person between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if this specific encounter does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline or ignore the requirement for a direct, in-person interaction.
- China — the market puts it at 86%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Trump and Putin meet in China before January 1, 2029. This meeting must be their first encounter after the scheduled August 15, 2025 summit in Alaska. Readers often mistake any recent diplomatic visit for the required event, but only this specific sequence of meetings counts.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 3%, with $251 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if they do not have such a meeting within that timeframe. Readers often mistake scheduled or virtual interactions for an in-person meeting.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? 14% −2
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- Kalshi China 86%
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- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 3%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Marco Rubio
- Xi Jinping
- Manila
- Quad