China
Implied probability 86%+6
24-hour volume$16
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 17 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 86% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 80% |
| 15 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 78% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Trump and Putin meet in China before January 1, 2029. This meeting must be their first encounter after the scheduled August 15, 2025 summit in Alaska. Readers often mistake any recent diplomatic visit for the required event, but only this specific sequence of meetings counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%