Proposed Trump-Putin-Xi Summit Could Crystallise Fears Of A Divided World

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 24 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 24 October at 05:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before his term ends — the market puts it at 20%, with $853 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the U.S. President is impeached by the House of Representatives and convicted by the Senate before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about firing aides for the actual impeachment process.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 6%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he remains in office on or after that date. Readers often mistake the linked Supreme Court case for the deciding factor, but only his actual departure from office matters.
• Before 2029 — the market puts it at 7%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if a constitutional amendment requiring term limits for at least some members of Congress is ratified before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if this specific amendment is not ratified by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about daylight saving time as relevant, but only the ratification of a congressional term limit amendment counts toward resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.