Pragmatists Lead Race to Become ECB President
Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot are the frontrunners for the role of fifth president of Europe's top monetary institution.
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The odds
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Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 43% |
| 31 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 42% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 29 October at 14:04 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Pablo Hernández de Cos — the market puts it at 43%, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pablo Hernández de Cos officially becomes President of the European Central Bank before January 1, 2028. It resolves to No if he does not hold that position by the deadline or if someone else held it first after the market launched. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the official start date, but only formal assumption of office counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Pablo Hernández de Cos 43% +1
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In this story
- Pablo Hernández de Cos
- Klaas Knot
- ECB