OpenAI's Math Approach Faces Scrutiny Over Lack of Transparency
Critics argue that OpenAI's opaque methods for mathematical reasoning are hindering progress despite recent advancements.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 06:47 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 54% |
| 31 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 55% |
| 31 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 56% |
| 31 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 56% |
| 31 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 57% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 57% |
| 30 Oct, 17:41 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 60% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 58% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 53% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 53% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 55% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 53% |
| 27 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 49% |
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| 27 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 03:33 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 00:31 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 60% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 59% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 51% |
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| 17 Oct, 07:40 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 47% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 48% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 47% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 44% |
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| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 59% |
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| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 54% |
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| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 47% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 54% |
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| 9 Oct, 10:01 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 60% |
| 7 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 68% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 61% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 60% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 06:14 UTC | 70% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Economist published first, on 4 November at 18:11 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 55%, with $697 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as a solver; partial results or announcements crediting only external researchers do not count.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 2%, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI publicly confirms an initial public offering before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake news about valuation or funding rounds for a confirmation of an IPO.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? 55% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 2% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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