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OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Coordinated Model-Distillation Campaign

The company says it identified and mitigated a campaign by individuals linked to the Chinese developer to extract protected reasoning from its models.

3 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 30 Sept 2026 · updated 5h ago

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 30 Sept 2026. OpenAI published first, on 30 September at 10:30 UTC; theinformation.com followed 22h 07m later. The most recent article, from Latest from Tom's Hardware, appeared on 1 October at 12:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: OpenAI, theinformation.com, Latest from Tom's Hardware.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • OpenAI — the market puts it at 20%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI holds the top-ranked artificial intelligence model anywhere in the world before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if it does not achieve this ranking by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the specific start of 2027.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi OpenAI 20% −3 $1k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

How the odds moved · OpenAI
0%50%100%20%24 Sept, 17:34 UTCnowLatest from Tom's Hardware: OpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning · 1 Oct, 12:00 UTCtheinformation.com: OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign · 1 Oct, 08:37 UTCOpenAI: Disrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign · 30 Sept, 10:30 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now20%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC20%
1 Oct, 13:30 UTC16%
1 Oct, 13:06 UTC20%
1 Oct, 12:58 UTC21%
1 Oct, 10:35 UTC16%
1 Oct, 06:01 UTC18%
1 Oct, 04:03 UTC21%
1 Oct, 00:51 UTC19%
1 Oct, 00:15 UTC20%
30 Sept, 23:47 UTC16%
30 Sept, 23:13 UTC15%
30 Sept, 20:24 UTC22%
29 Sept, 18:47 UTC21%
29 Sept, 12:03 UTC27%
29 Sept, 10:45 UTC26%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC25%
28 Sept, 07:37 UTC21%
28 Sept, 03:34 UTC27%
28 Sept, 00:07 UTC25%
27 Sept, 21:43 UTC20%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC25%
27 Sept, 20:07 UTC20%
27 Sept, 19:13 UTC21%
27 Sept, 18:58 UTC25%
27 Sept, 14:31 UTC24%
27 Sept, 04:11 UTC23%
26 Sept, 12:13 UTC24%
25 Sept, 17:52 UTC22%
25 Sept, 15:27 UTC25%
25 Sept, 12:18 UTC24%
25 Sept, 02:20 UTC21%
25 Sept, 00:34 UTC17%
24 Sept, 20:45 UTC22%
24 Sept, 19:10 UTC21%
24 Sept, 17:34 UTC18%

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How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on OpenAI at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. OpenAIDisrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign21%
  2. theinformation.comOpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign18%▼3 points since the previous source
  3. Latest from Tom's HardwareOpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning16%▼2 points since the previous source
  4. Current odds20%
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Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. OpenAI says actors linked to China-based Moonshot AI spearheaded a campaign to extract its models’ hidden reasoning Latest from Tom's Hardware
  2. OpenAI Accuses Moonshot of Distillation Campaign theinformation.com
  3. Disrupting a coordinated model-distillation campaign OpenAI

In this story

  • Moonshot AI

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