OpenAI
Why it moved: +5 points at 21:08 UTC, after The Hill: Bill Gates says global AI cooperation is 'more difficult' than nuclear talks — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 19:13 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 14:31 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 23% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 02:20 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 21% |
| 24 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 04:30 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if OpenAI holds the top-ranked artificial intelligence model anywhere in the world before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if it does not achieve this ranking by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the specific start of 2027.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 75%