Nicaragua to Withdraw from Central American Parliament
The country cites a human rights crackdown as it becomes increasingly isolated in Latin America.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 74% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 4 October at 22:36 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Nicaragua — the market puts it at 21%, with $22k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Nicaragua wins its soccer match against the Dominican Republic within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. The outcome does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistakenly believe that a draw or a win in extra time counts toward the Yes outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Nicaragua 21% +3
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In this story
- Nicaragua
- Central American Parliament