Nicaragua
Why it moved: −55 points at 23:25 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Nicaragua says it will withdraw from Central American Parliament — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 74% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nicaragua wins its soccer match against the Dominican Republic within the standard 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. The outcome does not depend on extra time or penalty shootouts. Readers often mistakenly believe that a draw or a win in extra time counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%