NC's Redrawn 1st District Becomes Most Expensive US House Race

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 29 October at 14:58 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Buckhout, 5+ pts — the market puts it at 21%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins North Carolina's 1st District race by a margin of at least five percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican Party wins by less than five points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the total vote count for the required margin, but only the difference between the winner and runner-up matters.
• Davis, 1+ pts — the market puts it at 83%, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Carolina's 1st District by a margin of at least one percentage point. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than one percentage point or loses the race entirely.
• Republican party — the market puts it at 37%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Republicans win control of the North Carolina State House in the 2026 election. It resolves to No if they do not. Readers often mistake this for a US House race, but it specifically concerns the state legislature.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.