Mississippi Senate Race Sees High Spending Amid Black Voter Focus
The state's largest proportional Black population drives millions in last-minute spending and high-profile campaign visits.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 8% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Oct 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 27 October at 09:00 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Mississippi — the market puts it at 13%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Mississippi has the largest Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democrat wins a 2026 U.S. Senate seat. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign spending for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on specific election results.
- Mississippi — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Mississippi legislature adopts new congressional district maps between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if no such adoption occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the news story's focus on spending for the actual legal requirement of map adoption.
- Mississippi — resolved “Yes” on 27 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically enters Mississippi between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not enter the state by that deadline. Readers often mistake a scheduled visit or a campaign rally headline for actual physical presence.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Mississippi 13% +6
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Mississippi 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Mississippi Yes 1h ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Mississippi