Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel Kill Two in Mexico
At least two people have died and ten remain missing as Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel batter Mexico's Pacific coast.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 15% |
| 11 Oct, 07:14 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Oct, 01:10 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 00:26 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 12% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 56% |
| 10 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 42% |
| 10 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 51% |
| 10 Oct, 13:14 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 49% |
| 10 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 54% |
| 10 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 65% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 69% |
| 10 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 70% |
| 10 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 25% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Category 5 or above respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 11 October at 19:31 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 11h 18m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 12 October at 23:09 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, South China Morning Post.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Category 5 or above — the market puts it at 3%, with $676 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not achieve that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category rating for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Category 5 or above at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraMexican president urges residents to shelter as Hurricane Simon approaches1%
- Deutsche WelleHurricane Simon batters Mexico's Pacific Coast3%▲2 points since the previous source
- ABC NewsHurricane Simon pounds resorts and vulnerable towns along Mexico’s Pacific coast3%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesHurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course3%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesHurricane Simon lashes Mexico's Pacific coast, threatens landfall3%
- South China Morning Post2 dead, 10 missing as hurricane and tropical storm hit Mexico3%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTwo deaths reported as Hurricane Simon, storm Rachel batter Mexico’s coast3%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Two deaths reported as Hurricane Simon, storm Rachel batter Mexico’s coast Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Hurricane Simon pounds resorts and vulnerable towns along Mexico’s Pacific coast ABC News ·
- Mexican president urges residents to shelter as Hurricane Simon approaches Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- 2 dead, 10 missing as hurricane and tropical storm hit Mexico South China Morning Post
- Hurricane Simon lashes Mexico's Pacific coast, threatens landfall Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Hurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Hurricane Simon batters Mexico's Pacific Coast Deutsche Welle
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Category 5 or above 3% −5
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In this story
- Hurricane Simon
- Tropical Storm Rachel
- Mexico
- Cabo Corrientes
- Jalisco