Category 5 or above
Implied probability 3%−5
24-hour volume$676
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 15% |
| 11 Oct, 07:14 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Oct, 01:10 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 00:26 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 12% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 56% |
| 10 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 42% |
| 10 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 51% |
| 10 Oct, 13:14 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 49% |
| 10 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 54% |
| 10 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 65% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 69% |
| 10 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 70% |
| 10 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not achieve that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category rating for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%