Merz Warns Berlin Against Seizing Landlords' Property
The chancellor urges regional authorities not to experiment with the market economy as investors attend a summit.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 13 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 20 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 20 October at 16:49 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 15%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or actually leaves that position before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a rail revamp plan for relevant information, but only Merz's actions regarding his chancellorship matter.
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? — the market puts it at 6%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before December 31, 2026, including via resignation or removal. An early announcement of his departure triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date the resignation becomes effective rather than the date it is announced.
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 — the market puts it at 3%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date the resignation becomes effective rather than the date it is announced.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 15%
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- Polymarket Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? 6% −2
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- Polymarket Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 3%
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In this story
- Merz
- Berlin