Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 23:01 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date the resignation becomes effective rather than the date it is announced.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
Trade this market on Polymarket →