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Lockheed Martin Backs Fortem and Unveils Stealth Drone Amid Skunk Works Pivot

The defense contractor invests in counter-drone firm Fortem and reveals a new stealth drone while CEO Jim Taiclet pushes for faster innovation across the company.

1 publisher · 5 articles · first seen 2 Oct 2026 · updated 2d ago

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The odds

How the odds moved · Lockheed Martin
0%50%100%16%1 Oct, 12:14 UTCnowBloomberg Technology: Bloomberg Defense Tech Special 10/02/2026 · 2 Oct, 17:36 UTCBloomberg Technology: Lockheed Backs Fortem’s Counter-Drone Push · 2 Oct, 17:33 UTCBloomberg Technology: Inside Skunk Works: Lockheed’s Bet on Vectis · 2 Oct, 17:30 UTCBloomberg Technology: Lockheed CEO Maps Pivot to Move at `Skunk Works' Speed · 2 Oct, 12:29 UTCBloomberg Technology: Lockheed’s ‘Big Bet’ Tests CEO Plan to Move at Skunk Works Speed · 2 Oct, 12:14 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now16%
4 Oct, 16:42 UTC16%
4 Oct, 16:25 UTC11%
4 Oct, 14:21 UTC17%
2 Oct, 13:19 UTC16%
2 Oct, 12:51 UTC12%
1 Oct, 12:14 UTC14%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 5 articles since 2 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 2 October at 12:14 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Technology, appeared on 2 October at 17:36 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Lockheed Martin — the market puts it at 16%, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government acquires any ownership stake in Lockheed Martin before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the CEO’s strategy for a government action, but only actual government investment counts.
  • Above 35 — the market puts it at 54%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 17 Feb 2027. The outcome is Yes if Lockheed Martin reports delivering more than 35 F-35 aircraft during the third quarter of 2026. The outcome is No if the company delivers 35 or fewer aircraft in that period. Readers often mistake the reporting date for the delivery window, but only actual deliveries within Q3 2026 count toward the total.
  • Above 124 thousand — the market puts it at 46%, closing 27 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Lockheed Martin reports a workforce exceeding 124,000 employees in its fiscal 2026 results. It resolves to No if that number is 124,000 or lower. Readers often mistake the current headcount for the final fiscal 2026 figure.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Lockheed Martin at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Bloomberg TechnologyLockheed’s ‘Big Bet’ Tests CEO Plan to Move at Skunk Works Speed14%
  2. Bloomberg TechnologyLockheed CEO Maps Pivot to Move at `Skunk Works' Speed14%
  3. Bloomberg TechnologyInside Skunk Works: Lockheed’s Bet on Vectis16%▲2 points since the previous source
  4. Bloomberg TechnologyLockheed Backs Fortem’s Counter-Drone Push16%
  5. Bloomberg TechnologyBloomberg Defense Tech Special 10/02/202616%
  6. Current odds16%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Bloomberg Defense Tech Special 10/02/2026 Bloomberg Technology ·
  2. Lockheed Backs Fortem’s Counter-Drone Push Bloomberg Technology ·
  3. Inside Skunk Works: Lockheed’s Bet on Vectis Bloomberg Technology ·
  4. Lockheed CEO Maps Pivot to Move at `Skunk Works' Speed Bloomberg Technology ·
  5. Lockheed’s ‘Big Bet’ Tests CEO Plan to Move at Skunk Works Speed Bloomberg Technology ·

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Lockheed Martin 16% $36 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Above 35 54% $8 24hends 17 Feb 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Above 124 thousand 46% $0 24hends 27 Apr 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Lockheed Martin
  • Fortem
  • Jim Taiclet
  • Jon Gruen
  • OJ Sanchez
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