Justice Alito Says He Considered Retiring From Supreme Court Last Term

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 2 Oct 2026. Just In News published first, on 2 October at 23:40 UTC; The Guardian US followed 34h 20m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 4 October at 10:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Just In News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 14%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito officially retires from the Supreme Court before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake news reports of his retirement considerations for an actual resignation.
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 8%, with $13k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. For the Yes outcome, Samuel Alito must make an official announcement that he will retire by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The retirement can take effect immediately or at any future date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about past considerations as a valid announcement, but only his actual declaration of intent counts.
• Samuel Alito — the market puts it at 74%, with $492 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito resigns or announces his intent to resign from the Supreme Court before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake recusal for resignation; only actual resignation or an announcement of intent to resign counts toward the Yes outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.