Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 8%+1
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$991k
Liquidity$101k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
For the Yes outcome, Samuel Alito must make an official announcement that he will retire by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The retirement can take effect immediately or at any future date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about past considerations as a valid announcement, but only his actual declaration of intent counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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