Israel's Ben-Gvir and Smotrich Diverge in Election

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 27 October at 11:04 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Itamar Ben-Gvir — the market puts it at 0%, closing 1 Jan 2045. The outcome is Yes if Itamar Ben-Gvir becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel after this question is posted. The outcome is No if someone else holds that office first. Readers often mistake news reports or threats for actual appointment; only the official swearing-in counts.
• Itamar Ben-Gvir — the market puts it at 60%, with $164 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Itamar Ben-Gvir formally takes office as Minister of National Security following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the election itself for the deadline, but the resolution depends on when he actually assumes the office.
• Bezalel Smotrich — the market puts it at 18%, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 27 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Bezalel Smotrich formally takes office as Minister of Finance following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before October 27, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the election itself for the deadline, but the clock starts ticking only after he assumes the specific finance minister role.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.