Google DeepMind Releases Gemini 4 Carbon Frontier Model
The company unveils the new model as its next frontier offering.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 11% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 28 Oct 2026. Google DeepMind published first, on 28 October at 17:00 UTC; Hacker News followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from Ars Technica, appeared on 28 October at 18:47 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Ars Technica (major outlet), Google DeepMind, Hacker News.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $12k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Google releases a model named "Carbon" or confirmed as the same model referenced in the Business Insider report, and makes it publicly accessible by October 31, 2026 (ET). Public accessibility requires an open beta, open rolling waitlist, or clear public announcement of general availability; closed betas or private access do not count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Google DeepMindGemini 4 Carbon: Our next frontier model11%
- Hacker NewsGemini 4 Carbon11%
- Ars TechnicaGoogle announces Gemini 4 Carbon, its latest frontier AI model that you can't use2%▼9 points since the previous source
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026? 1% −4
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In this story
- Gemini 4 Carbon