Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −8 points at 17:23 UTC, after Hacker News: Gemini 4 Carbon — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Google releases a model named "Carbon" or confirmed as the same model referenced in the Business Insider report, and makes it publicly accessible by October 31, 2026 (ET). Public accessibility requires an open beta, open rolling waitlist, or clear public announcement of general availability; closed betas or private access do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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