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Germany puts Ukrainian on trial for Nord Stream pipeline attacks

A Ukrainian citizen faces trial in Hamburg, accused of the 2022 sabotage that raised questions about Kyiv's role and German support.

2 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 13 Oct 2026 · updated 3h ago

The odds

How the odds moved · Germany
0%50%100%5%7 Oct, 16:02 UTCnowBBC News: Germany puts Ukrainian on trial accused of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines · 13 Oct, 23:42 UTCDeutsche Welle: Nord Stream: Trial of Ukrainian attack suspect begins in Germany · 13 Oct, 12:40 UTCDeutsche Welle: Nord Stream: Germany puts suspected Ukrainian pipeline saboteur on trial · 13 Oct, 12:40 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now5%
14 Oct, 00:41 UTC5%
7 Oct, 16:02 UTC40%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 13 Oct 2026. Deutsche Welle published first, on 13 October at 12:40 UTC; BBC News followed 11h 02m later. The most recent article, from BBC News, appeared on 13 October at 23:42 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Deutsche Welle, BBC News.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Germany — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Germany before January 1, 2029, following their scheduled August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the Alaska meeting for the deadline, but the actual cutoff is January 1, 2029.
  • Ukraine — the market puts it at 2%, with $199 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays within Ukraine’s borders between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake a scheduled visit or a virtual meeting for physical presence.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Germany at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Deutsche WelleNord Stream: Trial of Ukrainian attack suspect begins in Germany40%
  2. Deutsche WelleNord Stream: Germany puts suspected Ukrainian pipeline saboteur on trial40%
  3. BBC NewsGermany puts Ukrainian on trial accused of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines40%
  4. Current odds5%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Germany puts Ukrainian on trial accused of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines BBC News
  2. Nord Stream: Trial of Ukrainian attack suspect begins in Germany Deutsche Welle
  3. Nord Stream: Germany puts suspected Ukrainian pipeline saboteur on trial Deutsche Welle

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Germany 5% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Ukraine 2% −4 $199 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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