Germany
Why it moved: −35 points at 00:41 UTC, after BBC News: Germany puts Ukrainian on trial accused of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 40% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Germany before January 1, 2029, following their scheduled August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the Alaska meeting for the deadline, but the actual cutoff is January 1, 2029.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%