France Face Belgium In Nations League Group A Decider Hot: $128k traded on its market in 24 hours
The two nations meet in the final group stage match as they battle for the top spot in their division.
First reported by SI Feed, 5h 17m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 61% |
| 29 Sept, 21:40 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 89% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 63% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch France respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 5 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 5 October at 01:00 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 5h 18m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 5 October at 08:05 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SI Feed, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- France — the market puts it at 66%, with $128k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Oct 2026. France wins if it scores more goals than Belgium after 90 minutes of play and added stoppage time. The result excludes any extra time or penalty shootouts that might follow. Readers often mistake the final score after penalties for the winning margin, but only the score at the end of regulation time counts.
- Will France win on 2026-10-05? — the market puts it at 67%, with $42k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if France wins the match scheduled for October 5, 2026, and No otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the regular-time score counts.
- France — the market puts it at 24%, with $888 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if France wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League title. It resolves to No if any other team wins that specific tournament. Readers often mistake this for the current Nations League or confuse it with winning a group rather than the overall championship.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on France at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SI FeedFrance vs. Belgium—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups65%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesNations League: France face Belgium as they battle for top spot in group A65%▼1 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraFrance vs Belgium: UEFA Nations League – Olise, De Bruyne, teams and format66%▲2 points since the previous source
- Current odds66%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- France vs Belgium: UEFA Nations League – Olise, De Bruyne, teams and format Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Nations League: France face Belgium as they battle for top spot in group A France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- France vs. Belgium—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups SI Feed
Markets on this story
- Kalshi France 66% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will France win on 2026-10-05? 67% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi France 24% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- France
- Belgium