Florida Issues Arrest Warrant for Cuban Leader Raul Castro
The US state mirrors a federal indictment as it steps up pressure on the Cuban government.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 3% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 19 October at 19:48 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 46h 19m later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 21 October at 18:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Fox News Politics.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Raul Castro is physically detained or arrested by U.S. personnel at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting. Readers often mistake voluntary visits or presence in U.S. spaces for custody, but only actual physical control by U.S. agents counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? 5%
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In this story
- Florida
- Raul Castro
- Cuban