Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Raul Castro is physically detained or arrested by U.S. personnel at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting. Readers often mistake voluntary visits or presence in U.S. spaces for custody, but only actual physical control by U.S. agents counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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