Eric Schmidt's Anthropic Stake Could Be Worth $20 Billion at IPO
The former Google CEO’s 1% share in the AI startup could reach $20 billion when it goes public, though investor valuations remain divided.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 2 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 76% |
| 21 Oct, 15:11 UTC | 76% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Quartz published first, on 20 October at 11:40 UTC; Fortune followed 52h 05m later. The most recent article, from Fortune, appeared on 22 October at 15:44 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Quartz, Fortune.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Chrome — the market puts it at 76%, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2027. The outcome is Yes if an Alphabet representative mentions Chrome during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any public statement counts rather than only those made by Alphabet representatives on the call.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 6%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk appears in the top five results for Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People category. The outcome depends entirely on Google’s official ranking list for that specific year. Readers often mistake this for a general popularity contest rather than a strict requirement to hit the top five spot on that specific Google report.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 4%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk ranks as the number one search result on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list for the year 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the ranking deadline or assume any high search volume counts instead of the specific #1 spot on that official Google list.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Chrome at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- QuartzDer 1%-Anteil des ehemaligen Google-CEO Eric Schmidt an Anthropic könnte beim Börsengang 20 Milliarden Dollar wert sein.—
- QuartzDer frühere Google-CEO Eric Schmidt warnt, dass China den KI-Wettlauf mit günstigeren Modellen gewinnt.—
- QuartzÜberparteiliche Senatoren fordern Google auf, Antworten zu KI-Tools in Klassenzimmern zu geben.76%
- FortuneEx-Google CEO Eric Schmidt worked 60-hour weeks: ‘I used to tell people my job is to sit in meetings 12 hours a day’—he says AI will kill that burden76%
- Current odds76%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt worked 60-hour weeks: ‘I used to tell people my job is to sit in meetings 12 hours a day’—he says AI will kill that burden Fortune
- Überparteiliche Senatoren fordern Google auf, Antworten zu KI-Tools in Klassenzimmern zu geben. Quartz
- Der frühere Google-CEO Eric Schmidt warnt, dass China den KI-Wettlauf mit günstigeren Modellen gewinnt. Quartz
- Der 1%-Anteil des ehemaligen Google-CEO Eric Schmidt an Anthropic könnte beim Börsengang 20 Milliarden Dollar wert sein. Quartz
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Chrome 76%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elon Musk 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elon Musk 4%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls