Democrat Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Seat
The lieutenant governor becomes the sixth Black woman elected to the US Senate from the state.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 12:00 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 11:59 UTC | 1% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 01:04 UTC; Axios followed 1h 32m later. The most recent article, from Axios, appeared on 4 November at 02:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Axios (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Nov 2026. The 'Yes' outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The 'No' outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date instead of the moment when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
- Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $16k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Illinois governor election, while No applies if any other candidate wins. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or based on official certification if they do not agree.
- Illinois — the market puts it at 1%, closing 3 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Illinois has the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election. It resolves to No in all other cases. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about who will win the governorship or confuse the relevant election year.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026? 1% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Illinois 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Juliana Stratton
- Dick Durbin
- Illinois