Illinois
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves3 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Illinois has the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election. It resolves to No in all other cases. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about who will win the governorship or confuse the relevant election year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%