Congo's Ex-President Kabila Launches Anti-Government Front With M23 Rebels
Joseph Kabila has formed a political-military alliance with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, challenging President Felix Tshisekedi ahead of the 2028 election.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 11 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 12 Oct 2026. Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa published first, on 12 October at 21:27 UTC; ABC News followed 1h 11m later. The most recent article, from ABC News, appeared on 12 October at 22:38 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Félix Tshisekedi — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2035. The market resolves to Yes if Félix Tshisekedi leaves office before any other listed leader. It resolves to No if he remains in power while another listed leader departs first. Readers often mistake the source of truth, focusing on rumors or opposition claims rather than the official confirmation of a leader's departure.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Félix Tshisekedi 7%
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In this story
- Joseph Kabila
- M23
- Felix Tshisekedi