Bresnahan, Cognetti Clash in Pennsylvania Congressional Debate
The candidates debate the war in Iran and data centers while vying for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional seat.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 27% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 34% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Oct 2026. The Hill News published first, on 30 October at 02:33 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Rob Bresnahan — the market puts it at 13%, with $9k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the person sworn in as the U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district at the start of the 2027 term is a Republican. The outcome depends on the official party affiliation of the individual who takes office, not on debate results or polling data.
- Republican party — the market puts it at 46%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Pennsylvania State Senate election. It resolves to No if they do not win. Readers often mistake this for a U.S. House race, but it specifically concerns the State Senate.
- Republican party — the market puts it at 27%, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican representative takes office as a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if this specific event does not occur. Readers often mistake the date of the linked debate or any primary election results for the final resolution criteria.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Rob Bresnahan 13%
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- Kalshi Republican party 46% +11
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Republican party 27%
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In this story
- Rob Bresnahan
- Paige Cognetti
- Pennsylvania House