Brazil Candidates Lula and Bolsonaro Offer Free Bus Rides and Cash Back to Voters

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 21 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 21 October at 14:06 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 45% — the market puts it at 93%, with $67 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives at least 45% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes he receives, not on preliminary results or other candidates' shares. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the vote must occur rather than when the certification happens.
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? — the market puts it at 75%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 26 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Lula receives more valid votes from voters outside Brazil than any other candidate in the second round of the election. The No outcome applies if another candidate gets the most votes abroad or if the results are not finalized by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the source of truth; only official data from the Superior Electoral Court counts, not preliminary reports or media estimates.
• At least 48% — the market puts it at 96%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives at least 48% of the certified popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends entirely on the final official certification of the vote count, not on early polls or projections.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.