At least 45%
Implied probability 95%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 16 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 95% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives at least 45% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes he receives, not on preliminary results or other candidates' shares. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the vote must occur rather than when the certification happens.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%