NewsMarkets

Business

Bank of England Raises Interest Rates to 4% in First Hike in Three Years

The central bank increases the base rate by 0.25 percentage points, impacting mortgage payments and savings for millions of households.

3 publishers · 5 articles · first seen 3 Nov 2026 · updated 53m ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?
0%50%100%34%4 Nov, 14:08 UTCnowNews Feed: Bank rate rise ‘puts tracker mortgage trend at risk’ · 5 Nov, 18:20 UTCThe Guardian Business: What does interest rate rise mean for homeowners and savers? · 5 Nov, 14:00 UTCBBC Business: What does the raise in interest rates mean? · 5 Nov, 14:02 UTCBBC Business: Three ways the interest rate rise could affect you · 5 Nov, 12:02 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now34%
5 Nov, 17:28 UTC34%
5 Nov, 16:58 UTC36%
5 Nov, 16:13 UTC36%
5 Nov, 15:41 UTC38%
5 Nov, 15:25 UTC38%
5 Nov, 14:56 UTC37%
5 Nov, 14:16 UTC36%
4 Nov, 14:08 UTC28%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 3 Nov 2026. BBC Business published first, on 3 November at 15:51 UTC; The Guardian Business followed 46h 09m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 5 November at 18:20 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Business (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), BBC Business.

2 prediction markets price this story:

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. BBC BusinessWhat's happening to UK interest rates and what does it mean for mortgages?—
  2. BBC BusinessThree ways the interest rate rise could affect you28%
  3. The Guardian BusinessWhat does interest rate rise mean for homeowners and savers?28%
  4. BBC BusinessWhat does the raise in interest rates mean?28%
  5. News FeedBank rate rise ‘puts tracker mortgage trend at risk’34%▲6 points since the previous source
  6. Current odds34%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Bank rate rise ‘puts tracker mortgage trend at risk’ News Feed ·
  2. What does interest rate rise mean for homeowners and savers? The Guardian Business ·
  3. What does the raise in interest rates mean? BBC Business
  4. Three ways the interest rate rise could affect you BBC Business
  5. What's happening to UK interest rates and what does it mean for mortgages? BBC Business

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? 34% +5 $2k 24hends 17 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting? No 5h ago

    The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

  • Bank of England
  • Kevin Peachey
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.