Bank of England Raises Interest Rates to 4% in First Hike in Three Years
The central bank increases the base rate by 0.25 percentage points, impacting mortgage payments and savings for millions of households.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 28% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 3 Nov 2026. BBC Business published first, on 3 November at 15:51 UTC; The Guardian Business followed 46h 09m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 5 November at 18:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Business (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), BBC Business.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? — the market puts it at 34%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 17 Dec 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Bank of England raises its interest rate by exactly 25 basis points during the December 17, 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The No outcome applies to any other result, including no change or a different increase amount. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a recent rate hike for the relevant event, but only the decision from the specific December 2026 meeting counts.
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting? — resolved “No” on 5 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- BBC BusinessWhat's happening to UK interest rates and what does it mean for mortgages?—
- BBC BusinessThree ways the interest rate rise could affect you28%
- The Guardian BusinessWhat does interest rate rise mean for homeowners and savers?28%
- BBC BusinessWhat does the raise in interest rates mean?28%
- News FeedBank rate rise ‘puts tracker mortgage trend at risk’34%▲6 points since the previous source
- Current odds34%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Bank rate rise ‘puts tracker mortgage trend at risk’ News Feed ·
- What does interest rate rise mean for homeowners and savers? The Guardian Business ·
- What does the raise in interest rates mean? BBC Business
- Three ways the interest rate rise could affect you BBC Business
- What's happening to UK interest rates and what does it mean for mortgages? BBC Business
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting? 34% +5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting? No 5h ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Bank of England
- Kevin Peachey