Average Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Hits 6% for First Time in Three Years

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Oct 2026. The Guardian Business published first, on 5 October at 11:39 UTC.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Above 6.00% — the market puts it at 67%, closing 30 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in Freddie Mac’s final PMMS release published during 2027 exceeds 6.00%. It resolves to No if that specific reported rate is 6.00% or lower. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any rate above 6% at any time counts, but only the final 2027 report matters.
• Above 7.1% — the market puts it at 99%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeds 7.1% at any point during 2026. The outcome is No if the rate stays at or below 7.1% for the entire year. Readers often mistake the current rate mentioned in news headlines for the final resolution value, but only the rate observed within the 2026 timeframe determines the result.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.